Orbuculumbeta

New College of Florida

Sarasota, FL
FY 2022-23 fragility
78
/ 100
high

Composite Fragility Score over time

Pillar trajectories

Operating Margin
(Operating revenue − operating expenses) / operating revenue. Industry-standard debt-rating heuristics — Fitch-style bands for privates, Moody's-aligned for publics. Score reflects current year and 3-year rolling average — single positive years don't erase chronic distress.
Amber dot = unusual single-year shift; smoothed metric attenuates impact. Hover for context.
Pricing Power
Real net tuition revenue per FTE, 5-year change. Falling real net tuition + rising discount rate = market rejection of value proposition. Discount rate is the all-student institutional rate (F2C05 + F2C06 funded + unfunded grants over gross tuition); schools typically publish a first-time-in-college rate which runs 5-10 points higher.
Amber dot = unusual single-year shift; smoothed metric attenuates impact. Hover for context.
Debt Burden
Viability ratio (expendable net assets / plant debt) with debt-acceleration penalty. Catches schools whose covenants are at risk because of recent debt issuance.
Amber dot = unusual single-year shift; smoothed metric attenuates impact. Hover for context.
Liquidity
Days cash on hand. Tuition-collapse override prevents 'deathbed cash' from misleading the score (high cash from emergency relief while school is shrinking).
Amber dot = unusual single-year shift; smoothed metric attenuates impact. Hover for context.

Institutional debt per student

Total institutional long-term debt (not student loans) divided by full-time-equivalent enrollment, nominal dollars. For public-university systems with centralized bond debt (UC, FL SUS), the system pool is allocated across sibling campuses proportional to FTE.

Long-term debt per FTE student · FY 2022-23
$27,074
$19.0M total debt ÷ 703 FTE
IPEDS-reported debt / FTE · trend
422% since FY 2004-05 ($5,191)

Latest-year debt per FTE student includes IPEDS-reported plant debt plus the LLM-enriched DSO snapshot (off-balance-sheet bonds at affiliated entities — typically FY 2024 audit values). For schools in public systems not yet in our curated map (CSU, UT, TAMUS, etc.), the system pool is currently attributed entirely to the flagship campus per the dedupe pass; per-student numbers at those flagships are overstated until allocation is added. The trajectory line shows IPEDS-reported debt only (no DSO) for consistency across years — DSO is a single audit-year snapshot, not a time series.

Administrative spending

Institutional Support (administration) measured two ways, from IPEDS expense-by-function reporting: as a share of total operating expenses alongside Instruction (faculty/teaching), and indexed against net tuition revenue to show whether admin spending tracks the revenue that funds it.

Admin: 9.6% → 13.8% · Instruction: 27.1% → 30.6%

Instruction and Institutional Support as a share of total operating expenses. Instruction is the IPEDS faculty/teaching proxy; Institutional Support is the administrative proxy (executive management, finance, HR, general admin). A narrowing gap means admin is gaining on teaching.

Notes

Editorial context drawn from manual review of this school’s data, methodology interactions, and external reporting.

Florida tuition freeze drives system-wide pricing-power signal

Added 2026-04-26

The Florida State University System has not raised in-state undergraduate tuition since 2014 by legislative direction. With ~30% cumulative inflation since then, real net tuition per FTE has fallen materially across the system — most FL SUS schools transitioned from a pricing-power score of 0 (growing real tuition) through 2018 to a 25 (>10% real decline) by 2020-21. That contributes a full 25 of 100 points to most FL SUS composites in recent years. The signal is real (revenue per student is materially lower in inflation-adjusted dollars) but policy-driven rather than a market rejection of value — applies system-wide, not as a school-specific finding. FSU is the rare exception (pricing-power 0 in FY 2022-23), likely from non-resident or graduate-program tuition mix offsetting the in-state freeze.

Debt-per-student previously double-counted (now corrected)

Added 2026-05-25

NCF reports $19M of long-term debt in IPEDS (`F1A10`) — Certificates of Participation. The LLM enrichment also identified that same $19M as DSO debt under the label "New College of Florida (Certificates of Participation)", which caused the per-student debt figure to count it twice ($38M total). The fix nets the LLM campus total against IPEDS-reported plant debt: `off_balance_sheet = max(0, LLM − IPEDS)`. Because NCF's LLM total ($19M) equals its IPEDS reporting ($19M), the genuine off-balance-sheet component is zero, and the total debt is correctly $19M. This netting rule was applied across 76 schools where the LLM enrichment captured on-balance-sheet debt that's already in IPEDS — total $11.74B of double-counts removed.

Sustained high fragility since FY 2008-09

Added 2026-04-26

NCF has scored ≥60 (high) every fiscal year since FY 2008-09 except a brief 2010-2011 dip to moderate. Peaked at composite 100 in FY 2015-16. FY 2022-23 reading: thin liquidity at 9.5 days cash on hand (one of the lowest in the FL SUS), viability ratio 0.04 (state-pool DSO debt now incorporated). The post-2023 governance overhaul and athletics buildout aren't yet visible in IPEDS — those will reflect in subsequent year filings.

Latest-year breakdown (FY 2022-23)

PillarRaw MetricScore
Operating Margin25.0%5 / 25
Pricing Power$10 real net tuition / FTE25 / 25
Debt Burden0.04 viability ratio23 / 25
Liquidity10 days cash on hand25 / 25

Peer schools

Closest by Fragility Score in FY 2022-23. Financial similarity only — geographic / regional clustering is a separate (future) feature.

Selected raw financials — FY 2022-23

GASB / IPEDS Finance F1A. DSO totals from LLM enrichment of audited financial statements; see /sources for citations.

Total revenue (F1B27)
$62.9M
Total expenses (F1C191)
$58.1M
Net tuition revenue (F1B01)
$7K
State appropriations (F1B11)
$48.7M
Endowment EOY (F1H02)
$48.1M
Long-term debt (F1A10)
$19.0M
Expendable net position (F1N05)
$1.6M
Interest expense (F1C19IN)
$740K
DSO debt — campus-specific
$19.0M
DSO debt — system-level pool