Higher-Ed Financial Fragility
Structural fragility signals for 2,469 U.S. private nonprofit and public 4-year colleges, derived from IPEDS data FY 2004-05 through FY 2022-23. Privates use Fitch-style operating-margin bands; publics use Moody’s-aligned bands (lower thresholds reflecting GASB state-appropriation accounting). Two separate models — never blended. How the score works →
Or compare multiple schools on one chart (Ivy League, UC, Florida SUS, NESCAC, custom)
Total revenue
$609B
FY 2022-23 · all 4-yr U.S. higher ed
Total long-term debt
$425B
$257B IPEDS-reported
+ $167B off-balance-sheet
+ phantom debt (inferred from interest expense) — not yet captured
+ $167B off-balance-sheet
+ phantom debt (inferred from interest expense) — not yet captured
High fragility
363
36% of 1,000 institutions
15-yr debt growth
+179%
FY 2008: $92B → FY 2023: $257B
nominal, not inflation-adjusted
nominal, not inflation-adjusted
Fragility distribution — all institutions
Score buckets: 0–30 low / 31–60 moderate / 61–100 high. Hover any bar for sector counts.
FY 2004-05
1,375 privates · 753 publics
High-fragility count over time
FY 2004-05: 545 (26%)
FY04-05 → FY22-23
Private nonprofits
665 institutions · FASB · Fitch-style bands
20%
42%
38%
Low
0–30
133
20%
Moderate
31–60
277
42%
High
61–100
255
38%
Top 5 healthiest
Public universities
335 institutions · GASB · Moody's-aligned bands
23%
45%
32%
Low
0–30
76
23%
Moderate
31–60
151
45%
High
61–100
108
32%